Is Tamilnadu in for a surprise in the run-up to the polls or later?

Is the state of Tamilnadu in for a big political surprise, either in the run-up to the  assembly elections, the coming year 2021? There are some observers who also now suggest that the polls may get a bit delayed owing to the ongoing pandemic in Covid, and how people's life has been thrown out of gear. Irrespective of the delay, or even the fact that the polling percentage across the state could be drastically low, the polls will indeed happen - and that is not the surprise we are speaking of.

In the normal course, after the present ruling party, the AIADMK having been in government for two successive terms, the opposition, under the able leadership of MK Stalin ought to be extremely confident of a easy and maybe simple win, in  the coming polls. That, in the normal course should be a given, in the backdrop of the fact that the ever charismatic Jayalalitha is not around to lead the AIADMK. That besides, most political observers here do say that the general popularity or leadership standing of M K Stalin is many notches above the present CM, Edappadi K Palaniswami or his second in command, OPS. With that, it must be in fact as easy win for DMK, given that the party has a strong and undivided vote bank, unlike the ADMK, whose vote share has eroded, and might even erode more with maybe some leaving the party to join the DMK and BJP. That besides, with the expected release of Sasikala Natarajan, the late Jayalalitha's close friend, the ADMK is expected to be sent in a tizzy and a state of flux.

Despite a whole lot of inherent advantages, the DMK is seemingly unduly sweating it out, almost to an extent that its draining its energies in putting out fires set in by its friends in the DK and other fringe movements! If the DMK, like all of us beleive, is in command as they portray, with the fringe like DK and its likes, why is the party and its leadership getting into a whole lot of avoidable situations - like the latest assault of religious beliefs of the majority here, and also the kind of energies the party cadre offline and online are spending on attacking Rajinikanth, and even worse, those who are imagined to be close to him and have the actors blessings! Even the fact that they have a master poll strategist like Prashanth Kishor, doesnt seem to give DMK the kind of confidence they ought to portray.

Leave the DMK aside for a minute, even otherwise neither of the parties here (ADMK and DMK) are kind of focused, and confident about facing the polls and the outcome - they are rather observing all and sundry happening around, almost to the extent that even trivia is being blown out of proportion, which is a clear sign that their energies are not focused!

What could be the unknown that seems to worry both the parties, which between them would command a sixty to seventy percent vote share, with the balance split with their allies and some fringe parties? Do they think in a post poll scenario, their flock is vulnerable from unknown and unstated forces, which would possibly look to hijack the mandate, like it happens in some small states of the country, or is it that they think that some random person like the officer, who is imagined to have the support of Rajinikanth will ride a wave of public support, to get in the seat of power at Fort St George? (it could be anyone who is imagined to have the support of the actor, for that matter)

Given the fact that, historically, no actor who made a political debut could storm to power in India (with the rare exception of N T Ramarao, in the erstwhile unified Andhra Pradesh), it is rather surprising that some believe that someone like Actor Rajinkanth will be able to command something like a close to 20% voteshare, or close, so as to be in a commanding position in the post poll scenario? Is that even in the realm of possibility, one doesn't know.

If even the large political formations, like ADMK and DMK are exhibiting uncertainty about how they will handle the pre and post poll scenario in Tamilnadu, it can only be stated that they know something which we all do not know.

All said and done, it does not augur well for the state of Tamilnadu, for the largest parties to be unnerved by something unknown, if at all any. And that fear of the unknown, may be, is what will lead to TN seeing some huge political surprises, come 2021?