Rajini distraction in Tamilnadu?
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| Will he be a wave or bubble of distraction? |
Rajinikanth, in his own inimitable style makes it a point to pass one controversial comment or other, in his once a month media appearances in front of house in Poes Garden, Chennai.
And every time he does that, the entire state - the media, the ruling party and the opposition, all in toe, jump through the roof with their extreme reactions, to what the man said or did not say.
The fact remains that all Rajini has done as of now is to launch the prelude to his party, the Makkal Mandram, and carry out a host of welfare activities through that. Besides that, as of now, the apolitical forum is also seemingly being used to the future party's base infrastructure, for the likely political foray.
But no one, even those close to the man, the superstar, and the so called phenomenon, has a remote inkling of when the actual party will be launched, and how well will it be geared in terms of being set to contest the state elections, due just a year away.
There are a lot of realistic questions being asked - why does he continue signing up movies, if he committed to a future political party, how will the party do all that is needed to get registered with the Election Commission of India, so that is can contest the polls in a proper fashion, with candidates in the party name and allotted symbol etc.
Like this, there are a whole set of issues that Rajinikanth and his team ought to put in place, and from that perspective, time is clearly running out, for the so called future political party - at least if it to contest the 2021 TN elections.
Another thesis that is doing the rounds is that closer to the assembly elections sometime in 2021, Rajinikanth will make a grand announcement that owing to constraints in his own party getting into the fray, he is offering his support to some player, who he thinks will be able to steer the state in a good direction.
The wide expectation that this party, would be the BJP, thanks to the fact that he has shown proclivity to the right of centre, in a set of issues for which he has reacted in his now famous five minute media interactions, time and again. This is widely seen as the reason why both the large dravidian parties, the DMK and ADMK are reacting wildly and disproportionately to even the small reactions of the actor.
It is as though the primary political parties, instead of setting the agenda for the upcoming elections, are waiting for Rajinikanth to utter something, and then build their political discourse around the happening.
The reason for this could be the fact that the so called political vaccum in the state, after the passing away of the two tallest leaders in the state, J Jayalalitha, and M Karunanidhi, in almost quick succession. The incumbent Chief Minister, Edappadi Palaniswami and his Dy, O Paneerselvam are no where close to their leader in the charisma factor, and hence need to maintain a low profile, running their party and government affairs. ADMK, the party which they head now, after much of public posturing and spat with Jayalalitha's now jailed friend Sasikala, is a huge running organisation, and the proximity to power is something which keeps thing in place, as of now.
The point to note on the vaccuum thing is - neither the DMK nor the ADMK have reached where they have, say from a vote share point of view, overnight. It has taken the absolute charisma of its leaders, Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha, the iron hand with which they enforced the party rules on the cadre right from the top to the bottom, and their ability to sustain their campaigns and cadre euphoria election after election.
Crossing the 25% or 30% mark in a state election, in a few months of launching the party is almost next to impossible, and happens not just by the charisma and vote catching ability of a single leader, however powerful the person maybe. It is the result of a combination of numerous factors, including absolute anger with the existing parties, a pushing cause that make people galvanize to a new leader, and the ability of the new set up to penetrate the 1000s of booths where the ballot is cast on the D-day.
The present situation in Tamilnadu is very fluid to say the least, and there is no great leader who can drive the people to vote for them in hordes, like the times of Jayalalitha or Karunanidhi. And it would be naive to think that Rajinikanth, who undoubtedly is a hugely successful actor in the state, can transfer that acting popularity into political capital.
If he is able to do that, it will a sort of first in the state, something which has been possible only in the neigboring state of Andhra Pradesh, by the charismatic late N T Ramarao. But then, the trigger for that was the fact that Mrs Indira Gandhi almost publicly insulted NTR, which he converted to huge political capital which was a wave that catapulted him to power, in almost no time.
Anyone who knows Tamilnadu will agree that Rajinikanth is no NTR, and TN circa 2021 is not what Andhra was in 1983.
Fact also remains that, except MGR, no one else in the state who moved to politics from being an actor was able to get to the seat of power so easily. Even Jayalalitha, despite her being a popular actor had to endure the rough and tough on the road to power. Bigger names like Shivaji Ganesan, SSR etc fell by the wayside when they tried to nurture their political ambitions.
Some political pundits, who are inclined to side with Rajinikanth somehow portray an image that he will be CM post 2021, and that too easily - just because his intentions are good, and he is a godly human being etc. These thinks don't really work in the hustings, and like emphazised, there is no huge wave or discontent with the present parties who have been in power alternately.
In fact, both the large parties have kind of institutionalized the vote for money culture in the state over the years, and the people of this state also have got used to voting for the better bid. This is the bitter truth, and it remains to be seen if Rajinikanths charisma can be a better draw than the money factor.
Looking at all this, even if there is a big factor of support for Rajinikanth, he will be at best a spoilsport and a distraction. Whose party he spoils, and how much of damage he inflicts, is a million rupee guess, until 2021.
And every time he does that, the entire state - the media, the ruling party and the opposition, all in toe, jump through the roof with their extreme reactions, to what the man said or did not say.
The fact remains that all Rajini has done as of now is to launch the prelude to his party, the Makkal Mandram, and carry out a host of welfare activities through that. Besides that, as of now, the apolitical forum is also seemingly being used to the future party's base infrastructure, for the likely political foray.
But no one, even those close to the man, the superstar, and the so called phenomenon, has a remote inkling of when the actual party will be launched, and how well will it be geared in terms of being set to contest the state elections, due just a year away.
There are a lot of realistic questions being asked - why does he continue signing up movies, if he committed to a future political party, how will the party do all that is needed to get registered with the Election Commission of India, so that is can contest the polls in a proper fashion, with candidates in the party name and allotted symbol etc.
Like this, there are a whole set of issues that Rajinikanth and his team ought to put in place, and from that perspective, time is clearly running out, for the so called future political party - at least if it to contest the 2021 TN elections.
Another thesis that is doing the rounds is that closer to the assembly elections sometime in 2021, Rajinikanth will make a grand announcement that owing to constraints in his own party getting into the fray, he is offering his support to some player, who he thinks will be able to steer the state in a good direction.
The wide expectation that this party, would be the BJP, thanks to the fact that he has shown proclivity to the right of centre, in a set of issues for which he has reacted in his now famous five minute media interactions, time and again. This is widely seen as the reason why both the large dravidian parties, the DMK and ADMK are reacting wildly and disproportionately to even the small reactions of the actor.
It is as though the primary political parties, instead of setting the agenda for the upcoming elections, are waiting for Rajinikanth to utter something, and then build their political discourse around the happening.
The reason for this could be the fact that the so called political vaccum in the state, after the passing away of the two tallest leaders in the state, J Jayalalitha, and M Karunanidhi, in almost quick succession. The incumbent Chief Minister, Edappadi Palaniswami and his Dy, O Paneerselvam are no where close to their leader in the charisma factor, and hence need to maintain a low profile, running their party and government affairs. ADMK, the party which they head now, after much of public posturing and spat with Jayalalitha's now jailed friend Sasikala, is a huge running organisation, and the proximity to power is something which keeps thing in place, as of now.
The point to note on the vaccuum thing is - neither the DMK nor the ADMK have reached where they have, say from a vote share point of view, overnight. It has taken the absolute charisma of its leaders, Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha, the iron hand with which they enforced the party rules on the cadre right from the top to the bottom, and their ability to sustain their campaigns and cadre euphoria election after election.
Crossing the 25% or 30% mark in a state election, in a few months of launching the party is almost next to impossible, and happens not just by the charisma and vote catching ability of a single leader, however powerful the person maybe. It is the result of a combination of numerous factors, including absolute anger with the existing parties, a pushing cause that make people galvanize to a new leader, and the ability of the new set up to penetrate the 1000s of booths where the ballot is cast on the D-day.
The present situation in Tamilnadu is very fluid to say the least, and there is no great leader who can drive the people to vote for them in hordes, like the times of Jayalalitha or Karunanidhi. And it would be naive to think that Rajinikanth, who undoubtedly is a hugely successful actor in the state, can transfer that acting popularity into political capital.
If he is able to do that, it will a sort of first in the state, something which has been possible only in the neigboring state of Andhra Pradesh, by the charismatic late N T Ramarao. But then, the trigger for that was the fact that Mrs Indira Gandhi almost publicly insulted NTR, which he converted to huge political capital which was a wave that catapulted him to power, in almost no time.
Anyone who knows Tamilnadu will agree that Rajinikanth is no NTR, and TN circa 2021 is not what Andhra was in 1983.
Fact also remains that, except MGR, no one else in the state who moved to politics from being an actor was able to get to the seat of power so easily. Even Jayalalitha, despite her being a popular actor had to endure the rough and tough on the road to power. Bigger names like Shivaji Ganesan, SSR etc fell by the wayside when they tried to nurture their political ambitions.
Some political pundits, who are inclined to side with Rajinikanth somehow portray an image that he will be CM post 2021, and that too easily - just because his intentions are good, and he is a godly human being etc. These thinks don't really work in the hustings, and like emphazised, there is no huge wave or discontent with the present parties who have been in power alternately.
In fact, both the large parties have kind of institutionalized the vote for money culture in the state over the years, and the people of this state also have got used to voting for the better bid. This is the bitter truth, and it remains to be seen if Rajinikanths charisma can be a better draw than the money factor.
Looking at all this, even if there is a big factor of support for Rajinikanth, he will be at best a spoilsport and a distraction. Whose party he spoils, and how much of damage he inflicts, is a million rupee guess, until 2021.
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